Effects of Microphysics Parameterizations on Forecasting a Severe Hailstorm of 30 April 2021 in Eastern China

Abstract

On the evening of 30 April 2021, a severe hailstorm swept across eastern China, causing catastrophic gale and damaging hailstones. This hailstorm event was directly caused by two mesoscale convective systems associated with strong squall lines, with mid-level cold advection from the northeast cold vortex, and strong low-level convergence associated with the low-level vortex and wind shear line. Double nesting of the high-resolution weather research and forecasting model (9–1 km) is utilized to simulate this hailstorm with five microphysics schemes. The radar-based maximum estimated size of hail (MESH) algorithm, differential reflectivity and fractions skill scores were used to quantitatively evaluate the precision. All schemes basically captured the two squall lines that swept through eastern China, although they appeared one or two hours earlier than observation. Particularly, Goddard and Thompson performed better in the MESH swath and fractions skill scores among the five different schemes. However, Thompson most realistically captured the reflectivity pattern, intensity and vertical structure of mesoscale convective systems. Its high-reflectivity column corresponded to the maximum center of the hail mixing ratio within the updraft region, which is consistent with the characteristics of a pulse-type hailstorm in its mature phase.