Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections

Abstract

The Pacific region of Colombia is known to be one of the most vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns. A study was conducted using standardized precipitation index (SPI) analyses to understand the potential changes in precipitation in this region during the 21st century. The analyses were conducted using historical precipitation data from 1950 to 2005 and projected precipitation data from 2022 to 2100 under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The results of the study showed that compared to historical data, SPI3 precipitation in this region is predicted to increase by 2040 under both climatic scenarios. However, in the 2041–2070 period, the region is expected to be wetter under RCP 8.5, although the difference between the two scenarios was not statistically significant. Similarly, SPI 6 precipitation is predicted to increase in the 2022–2040 and 2071–2100 periods under both scenarios. SPI 12 precipitation is also predicted to increase in the 2022–2040 period under RCP 4.5. In the 2041–2070 period, dryness is predicted to be more frequent under RCP 4.5, and wetness is predicted under RCP 8.5. The findings of this study can help in determining the most pertinent reference periods and computation time increments for evaluating the effects of future climate change on agricultural production and food security in the Pacific region of Colombia. It suggests that changes in precipitation patterns are likely to occur in the coming decades, which may significantly impact crop growth, water availability, and other aspects of agricultural production.