Validation and Selection of a Representative Subset from the Ensemble of EURO-CORDEX EUR11 Regional Climate Model Outputs for the Czech Republic

Abstract

To better understand the impact of climate change at a given location, it is crucial to consider a wide range of climate models that are representative of the area. In this study, we emphasize the importance of the careful validation and selection of climate models most suitable for a particular region. This step is critical to enhance the relevance of climate change impact studies and consequently design appropriate and robust adaptation measures, particularly in agriculture, forestry and water resources management. We propose validation and selection methods for regional climate models that can help identify a smaller group of well-performing models using the Central European area and Czech Republic as examples. In the validation process, 7 out of 19 regional climate models performed poorly. Of the 12 well-performing models, a subset of 7 models was selected to represent the uncertainty in the entire ensemble, which could be used in subsequent studies. The methodology is sufficiently general and may be applied to other climate model ensembles.