Long-Term Trends of Astroclimatic Parameters above the Terskol Observatory

Abstract

Astroclimatic conditions characterize the quality of an astronomical site. The Terskol Observatory was founded over 42 years ago in 1980. The astronomical site (coordinates 43°16′29″ N, 42°30′03″ E) is located about 10 km from Mt. Elbrus in the northern Caucasus Mountains. The paper presents the results of an analysis of long-term variations from 1980 to 2022 of astroclimatic parameters such as total cloud cover, precipitable water vapor, and wind speed at a level of 200 hPa above the Terskol Observatory using atmospheric ERA5 Reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast. The probability distributions and seasonal variations of the astroclimatic parameters are also presented. Long-term trends of the astroclimatic parameters are studied with statistically significant trend analysis methods using the Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s slope test to estimate the magnitude of the changes. The results show non-significant decreases of annual average 200-hPa wind speed and increases in precipitable water vapor, but significant (99 per cent confidence level) long-term decreasing of total cloud cover above the Terskol Observatory.