21st Century Warming, Site Aspect, and Reversal of Age-Related Growth Decline in Shortleaf Pine (Pinus echinata) in North Carolina, USA

Abstract

We examined the influence of significant 21st century warming on the radial growth patterns of shortleaf pine growing on adjacent north/northeast- and south/southwest-facing slopes (hereafter NS and SS), in the Uwharrie Mountains of North Carolina, USA. Using two chronologies developed from old-growth trees dating to the 1700s, we compared raw radial growth rates (hereafter radial growth) associated with earlywood, latewood, and totalwood during 1935–2020. Both chronologies exhibited similar (r = 0.951, p < 0.001) age-related growth decreases through the 20th century. However, both chronologies experienced abrupt increases in radial growth with less fidelity (r = 0.86, p < 0.001), correlating with the onset of warming mean annual temperatures (r = 0.58, p < 0.01) and warming winter temperatures (r = 0.55, p < 0.05) in 2002. These results show that shortleaf pine growing on both NS and SS have experienced significant radial growth increases since the early 21st century, but that aspect affected growth rates. During 2002–2020, NS radial growth increased significantly (p < 0.05) more than SS earlywood, latewood, and totalwood, indicating that the effects of warming were greater for NS trees. We conclude that old-growth shortleaf pine trees retain climatic sensitivity to significant environmental changes associated with a warming climate and can reverse age-related growth declines.