Multi-Temporal Variabilities of Extreme Precipitation over Central Asia and Associated Planetary-Scale Climate Modes

Author:

Tang Wei1,Xiao Fang1,Lai Sheng2

Affiliation:

1. Institute for Development and Programme Design, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

2. Climate Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nanning 530022, China

Abstract

Arid- and semi-arid Central Asia is particularly sensitive to climate change. The changes in extreme precipitation in Central Asia stemming from climate warming are the subject of intense debate within the scientific community. This study employed a Morlet wavelet analysis to examine the annual occurrence number of extreme precipitation in Central Asia from May to September during the period of 1951–2005. Their modulating planetary-scale climate modes were identified by using linear regression analysis. Two major scales of the temporal variability were derived: 2–3.9 years and 4–6 years. The dominant variability was a 2–3.9-year scale and was associated with the negative phase of the Polar/Eurasia (POL) pattern. The 4–6-year scale provided a secondary contribution and was closely linked to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These planetary climate modes acted as precursors of extreme precipitation over Central Asia. The negative phase of POL directly contributed to a negative height anomaly over Central Asia, which was intimately related to extreme precipitation. In contrast, the negative NAO phase possibly manifested as a Rossby wave source, which was subsequently exported to Central Asia through a negative–positive–negative Rossby wave train.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

China Meteorological Administration Meteorological Soft Science Key Project “International Comparative Research on Core Operational Capabilities of Meteorological Science and Technology”

2023 China Meteorological Administration review and summary project

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Atmospheric Science,Environmental Science (miscellaneous)

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