WRF Physics Ensemble Performance Evaluation over Continental and Coastal Regions in Germany

Abstract

WRF is used to simulate eight extreme precipitation events that occurred over the regions of Schleswig–Holstein and Baden–Wurttemberg in Germany. The events were chosen from the German Weather Service (DWD) catalog and exceeded the DWD’s warning level 3 (i.e., rainfall > 40 mm/h). A two-way nesting approach is used with 9 and 3 km spatial resolutions. Initial and boundary conditions are obtained from the ERA5 dataset at 0.25° × 0.25°. To model each event, thirty different parameterization configurations were used, accounting for all possible combinations of five microphysics (MP), three cumulus (CU), and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization methods, yielding a total of 240 simulations. TOPSIS multicriteria analysis technique is employed to determine the performance skill of each setup and rank them, using six categorical and five statistical metrics. Resolution increase from 9 to 3 km did not improve forecasting accuracy temporally or in intensity. According to TOPSIS ranking, when treating each event individually, the ideal parameterizations combination is spatiotemporally dependent, with certain members ranking higher. When all events are considered, the Morrison double-moment MP–Grell–Freitas CU–YSU PBL combination works best with a frequency of occurrence in the top five performing scenarios of 30%, 47.5%, and 57.5% respectively.