Response of Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclone Size to Ocean Warming: A Case Study for Typhoon Songda in 2016

Abstract

This study attempts to investigate how future sea surface temperature increases will affect the size (radius of gale-force [17 m s−1] wind at 10 m height; i.e., R17) evolution of tropical cyclones that undergo extratropical transition (ET) through sensitivity experiments of sea surface temperature (SST) for Typhoon Songda (2016) in the northwestern Pacific. Two numerical experiments were carried out, including a control simulation (control) and a sensitivity experiment (SST4.5) with SST increased by 4.5 degrees in the entire domain. The results showed that Songda tended to be stronger and larger with projected higher SSTs. Moreover, the momentum equation for tangential wind was utilized to study the mechanism of R17 evolution in different SST scenarios, in which the radial absolute vorticity flux term played a dominant role in generating a positive tendency of tangential wind. The results indicate that before ET, higher SSTs in the entire domain led to more active rainbands in both inner-core and outer-core regions. As a result, stronger secondary circulation and low-level inflow extended outward, and the absolute angular momentum (AAM) importing from the outer region increased, which led to a larger R17 in SST4.5. During the ET, the peripheral baroclinically driven frontal convection induced extensive boundary layer inflow, which accelerated the tangential flow in the outer frontal region through strong inward AAM transport. However, due to the lower latitude of the cyclone and the strong frontolysis at the outer side of the cold pool in SST4.5, the peripheral frontal convection reached the location of R17 later; thus, the increase in the cyclone size lagged behind that in the control.