Intelligent Analysis of Construction Costs of Shield Tunneling in Complex Geological Conditions by Machine Learning Method

Abstract

The estimation of construction costs for shield tunneling projects is typically based on a standard quota, which fails to consider the variation of geological parameters and often results in significant differences in unit cost. To address this issue, we propose a novel model based on a random forest machine learning procedure for analyzing the construction cost of shield tunnelling in complex geological conditions. We focus specifically on the unit consumption of grease, grouting, labor, water, and electricity. Using a dataset of geotechnical parameters and consumption quantities from a shield tunneling project, we employ KNN and correlation analysis to reduce the input dataset dimension from 17 to 6 for improved model accuracy and efficiency. Our proposed approach is applied to a shield tunneling project, with results showing that the compressive strength of geomaterial is the most influential parameter for grease, labor, water, and electricity, while it is the second most influential for grouting quantity. Based on these findings, we calculate the unit consumption and cost of the tunnelling project, which we classify into three geological categories: soil, soft rock, and hard rock. Comparing our results to the standard quota value, it is found that the unit cost of shield tunneling in soil is slightly lower (6%), while that in soft rock is very close to the standard value. However, the cost in the hard rock region is significantly greater (38%), which cannot be ignored in project budgeting. Ultimately, our results support the use of compressive strength as a classification index for shield tunneling in complex geological conditions, representing a valuable contribution to the field of tunneling cost prediction.