Time-Varying Surface Deformation Retrieval and Prediction in Closed Mines through Integration of SBAS InSAR Measurements and LSTM Algorithm

Abstract

After a coal mine is closed, the coal rock mass could undergo weathering deterioration and strength reduction due to factors such as stress and groundwater, which in turn changes the stress and bearing capacity of the fractured rock mass in the abandoned goaf, leading to secondary or multiple surface deformations in the goaf. Currently, the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the surface deformation of closed mines remains unclear, and there is no integrated monitoring and prediction model for closed mines. Therefore, this study proposed to construct an integrated monitoring and prediction model for closed mines using small baseline subset (SBAS) interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and a deep learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network algorithm to achieve evolution pattern and dynamic prediction of spatiotemporal surface deformation of closed mines. Taking a closed mine in the western part of Xuzhou, China, as an example, based on Sentinel-1A SAR data between 21 December 2015, and 11 January 2021, SBAS InSAR technology was used to obtain the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the surface during the 5 years after mine closure. The results showed that the ground surface subsided in the early stage of mine closure and then uplifted. In 5 years, the maximum subsidence rate in the study area is −43 mm/a, and the cumulative maximum subsidence is 310 mm; the maximum uplift rate is 29 mm/a, and the cumulative maximum uplift is 135 mm. Moreover, the maximum tilt and curvature are 3.5 mm/m and 0.19 mm/m2, respectively, which are beyond the safety thresholds of buildings; thus, continuous monitoring is necessary. Based on the evolution pattern of surface deformation, the surface deformation prediction model was proposed by integrating SBAS InSAR and an LSTM neural network. The experiment results showed that the LSTM neural network can accurately predict the deformation trend, with a maximum root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.1 mm. Finally, the relationship between the residual surface deformation and time after mine closure was analyzed, and the mechanisms of surface subsidence and uplift were discussed, which provide a theoretical reference for better understanding the surface deformation process of closed mines and the prevention of surface deformation.