The Influence of Climate Change on Forest Fires in Yunnan Province, Southwest China Detected by GRACE Satellites

Abstract

Yunnan province in China has rich forest resources but high forest fire frequency. Therefore, a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and forest fires in this region is important for forest fire prevention. This study used the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) data to analyze the influence of climate change on forest fires in the region during 2003–2016. To improve the accuracy and reliability of GRACE TWSC data, we used the generalized three-cornered hat (GTCH) and the least square method to fuse TWSC data from six GRACE solutions. The spatiotemporal variation of forest fires during 2003–2016 was investigated using burned area data. Then, the relationship between burned area and hydrological and climatic factors was analyzed. The results indicate that more than 90% of burned areas are located in northwestern and southern Yunnan (NW and S). On the seasonal scale, forest fires are mainly concentrated in January–April (dry season) and the burned area is negatively correlated with precipitation (correlation coefficient r = −0.83 (NW) and −0.51 (S)), relative humidity (r = −0.79 (NW) and −0.92 (S)), GRACE TWSC (r = −0.57 (NW) and −0.73 (S)) and evapotranspiration (r = −0.90 (NW) and −0.35 (S)). However, the burned area has no significant correlations with the above four factors on the interannual scale. The composite analysis suggests that the extreme climate affects precipitation, evapotranspiration and TWSC in this region, thereby changing water storage of the air in this region, leading to the formation of an environment prone to forest fires. Such conditions have led to an increase in the burned area in the above region. We also found that the difference between TWSC in high- and low-fire years is much greater than the precipitation in the same period. The above results show that GRACE satellites can detect the influence of climate change on forest fires in Yunnan province.