Implications of the SARS-Cov-2 Pandemic for Mortality Forecasting: Case Study for the Czech Republic and Spain

Abstract

The current pandemic situation of SARS-Cov-2 is negatively influencing people worldwide, and leading to high mortality and excess mortality, due to more reasons than only the disease itself. Thus, forecasting of the mortality rates and consequent population projections would have been complicated since 2020. Paper models mortality in the Czech Republic and Spain and assesses the possible impact of the COVID-19 on the forecasts. We use a Lee–Carter model and apply it to data from 1981 to 2019 (forecast A) and 1981 to 2020 (forecast B). Our results show differences in forecasts up to 2030 by mean square difference. The highest is in ages above 50 for Spain, where it was observed that the COVID-19 pandemic affected the mortality rates in a way that they were higher, and decreased at a slower pace than they would without taking 2020 into account. In the Czech Republic (CR), the forecast does not seem to be affected yet, but it could be in the future when the number of deaths (not only due to COVID-19, but altogether) increases significantly. Nevertheless, we have to verify our preliminary results on real data as soon as they are available.