Comparison of Regression and Neural Network Model for Short Term Load Forecasting: A Case Study

Abstract

Short term load forecasting (STLF) is an obligatory and vibrant part of power system planning and dispatching. It utilized for short and running targets in power system planning. Electricity consumption has nonlinear patterns due to its reliance on factors such as time, weather, geography, culture, and some random and individual events. This research work emphasizes STLF through utilized load profile data from domestic energy meter and forecasts it by Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Cascaded Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (CFBP) techniques. First, simple regression statistical calculations used for prediction, later the model improved by using a neural network tool. The performance of both models compared with Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). The MAPE error for MLR observed as 47% and it reduced to 8.9% for CFBP.