Achieving Sustainable Land Use Allocation in High-Altitude Area by 2030: Insights from Circle Structure and Scenario Predictions for Production–Living–Ecological Land in Xining Marginal Area, China

Abstract

The paper focused on the Xining marginal area, providing the concept of land use competitive advantage, employing the PLUS and PFCI model to simulate production–living–ecological (PLE) land in 2030, and revealing the relationship between regional land interactions and sustainable land allocation. The results indicate that the following: (1) By 2030, the land use of the Xining marginal area is primarily production and ecological land, with approximately 0.1% of living land; however, living and production land will increase while ecological land will decrease in general, and the growth momentum of urban and other living space in government-seated regions is stronger. (2) The PLE land does not exhibit a piecemeal expansion pattern, as it is influenced by mountains and rivers. Agricultural production land and grassland ecological land have advantages for development, whereas urban living land has just development potential. (3) Developing the corresponding lands in the dominant regions can result in sustainable land allocation, and five nexus approaches are proposed for the sustainable allocation of PLE land in the Xining marginal region. The study addresses the interaction of different land use types across regions rather than examining them separately, and we provide significant insight into whether the Qinghai Tibet Plateau should be urbanized.