Ecological and Environmental Risk Warning Framework of Land Use/Cover Change for the Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract

Land use/cover change(LUCC) has a significant impact on the ecological environment. Within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as the largest cross-spatial cooperation initiative in human history, one of the core issues is how to scientifically and effectively use and manage the land in the region to prevent the destruction of important ecological and environmental resources. In order to reduce impact on the latter, in this study, we used the bivariate choropleth–multiple-criteria decision analysis (BC-MCDA) method based on the connotation of the sustainable development goals to construct an ecological and environmental risk warning framework. We found that in the study area, 10.51% of the land has high ecological and environmental risk and importance, corresponding to conflict zones, which require special attention. Conflict areas are mainly distributed in the Gangetic Plain in India, the plains in central and southern Cambodia, the Indonesian archipelago, and the southern coastal areas of China. Due to the uneven spatial distributions of population and important ecological and environmental resources, the pressure on this type of land use is very high. A share of 8.06% of the land has high risk–low importance, corresponding to economic development zones. Following years of human development, the ecological and environmental value of this type of land is low. A share of 58.75% of the land has low risk and importance, corresponding to wilderness areas. The natural climatic conditions of this type of land are relatively poor, often characterized by a cold climate or water scarcity, and the human interference index is low. A share of 22.68% of the land has low risk–high importance, corresponding to ecological conservation areas, which are the most important areas for ecological function services for humans at present. Finally, we proposed development suggestions for each type of land.