The Impact of COVID-19 on the Jobs–Housing Dynamic Balance: Empirical Evidence from Wuhan between 2019, 2021, 2023

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic, a significant public health emergency, has underscored the criticality of jobs–housing proximity. Static statistical research, however, struggles to uncover the mechanisms underlying jobs–housing balance, providing limited guidance for urban management. This paper adopts the concept of jobs–housing dynamic balance, analyzing the trends in jobs–housing balance in the metropolitan development area of Wuhan in the early and later period of the pandemic from the perspective of individual jobs–housing migration. Using mobile phone signaling data, we identified a stable population of 161,698 residents in June 2019, June 2021, and June 2023, and calculated jobs–housing synchronization and migration impact indices across seven regions. The study finds the following: (1) there is a pronounced misalignment of jobs–housing in the new cities of Wuhan’s suburbs, with clear asynchronous in-migration and out-migration; (2) COVID-19 initially led to a unidirectional exodus of the local population for job purposes, significantly contributing to regional jobs–housing imbalance, followed by a partial rebound in the later stages; and (3) the stability of jobs–housing balance in suburban new cities lacking policy support and comprehensive urban functions is worse, primarily due to insufficient employment resilience and the out-migration of the employed population. This paper puts forward a set of recommendations for the sustainable development of suburban new cities. It offers insights into the theoretical advancement of jobs–housing balance and the dynamic, refined transformation of urban studies, enhancing urban managers’ understanding of human–place interactions and new city construction.