Ecosystem Resilience Trends and Its Influencing Factors in China’s Three-River Headwater Region: A Comprehensive Analysis Using CSD Indicators (1982–2023)

Abstract

Ecosystem resilience, the ability of an ecosystem to recover from disturbances, is a critical indicator of environmental health and stability, particularly under the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic pressures. This study focuses on the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR), a critical ecological area for East and Southeast Asia, often referred to as the “Water Tower of China”. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy for vegetation growth and productivity and calculated Critical Slowing Down (CSD) indicators to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland ecosystem resilience in the TRHR from 1984 to 2021. Our research revealed a sustained improvement in ecosystem resilience in the TRHR starting in the late 1990s, with a reversal in this trend observed after 2011. Spatially, ecosystem resilience was higher in areas with greater precipitation and higher vegetation productivity. Temporally, changes in grazing intensity were most strongly correlated with resilience dynamics, with explanatory power far exceeding that of NDVI, temperature, and precipitation. Our study underscores the importance of incorporating ecosystem resilience into assessments of ecosystem function changes and the effectiveness of ecological conservation measures, providing valuable insights for similar research in other regions of the world.