Assessing Habitat Suitability: The Case of Black Rhino in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area

Abstract

Efforts to identify suitable habitat for wildlife conservation are crucial for safeguarding biodiversity, facilitating management, and promoting sustainable coexistence between wildlife and communities. Our study focuses on identifying potential black rhino (Diceros bicornis) habitat within the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), Tanzania, across wet and dry seasons. To achieve this, we used remote sensing data with and without field data. We employed a comprehensive approach integrating Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope images, vegetation indices, and human activity data. We employed machine learning recursive feature elimination (RFE) and random forest (RF) algorithms to identify the most relevant features that contribute to habitat suitability prediction. Approximately 36% of the NCA is suitable for black rhinos throughout the year; however, there are seasonal shifts in habitat suitability. Anthropogenic factors increase land degradation and limit habitat suitability, but this depends on the season. This study found a higher influence of human-related factors during the wet season, with suitable habitat covering 53.6% of the NCA. In the dry season, browse availability decreases and rhinos are forced to become less selective of the areas where they move to fulfil their nutritional requirements, with anthropogenic pressures becoming less important. Furthermore, our study identified specific areas within the NCA that consistently offer suitable habitat across wet and dry seasons. These areas, situated between Olmoti and the Crater, exhibit minimal disturbance from human activities, presenting favourable conditions for rhinos. Although the Oldupai Gorge only has small suitable patches, it used to sustain a large population of rhinos in the 1960s. Land cover changes seem to have decreased the suitability of the Gorge. This study highlights the importance of combining field data with remotely sensed data. Remote sensing-based assessments rely on the importance of vegetation covers as a proxy for habitat and often overlook crucial field variables such as shelter or breeding locations. Overall, our study sheds light on the imperative of identifying suitable habitat for black rhinos within the NCA and underscores the urgency of intensified conservation efforts. Our findings underscore the need for adaptive conservation strategies to reverse land degradation and safeguard black rhino populations in this dynamic multiple land-use landscape as environmental and anthropogenic pressures evolve.