Development of a Climate-Sensitive Structural Stand Density Management Model for Red Pine

Abstract

The primary objective of this study was to develop a climate-sensitive modular-based structural stand density management model (SSDMM) for red pine (Pinus resinosa Aiton) plantations situated within the western Great Lakes—St. Lawrence and south-central Boreal Forest Regions of Canada. For a given climate change scenario (e.g., representative concentration pathway (RCP)), geographic location (longitude and latitude), site quality (site index) and crop plan (e.g., initial espacement density and subsequent thinning treatments), the resultant hierarchical-based SSDMM consisting of six integrated modules, enabled the prediction of a multitude of management-relevant performance metrics over rotational lengths out to the year 2100. These metrics included productivity measures (e.g., mean annual volume, biomass and carbon increments), volumetric yield estimates (e.g., total and merchantable volumes), pole and log product distributions (e.g., number and size distribution of pulp and saw logs, and utility poles), biomass production and carbon sequestration outcomes (e.g., oven-dried masses of above-ground components and associated carbon mass equivalents), recoverable end-product volumes and associated monetary values (e.g., volumes and economic worth estimates of recovered chip and dimensional lumber products extractable via stud and randomized length mill processing protocols), and crop tree fibre attributes reflective of end-product potential (e.g., wood density, microfibril angle, and modulus of elasticity). The core modules responsible for quantifying stand dynamics and structural change were developed using 491 tree-list measurements and 146 stand-level summaries obtained from 98 remeasured permanent sample plots situated within 21 geographically separated plantation-based initial spacing and thinning experiments distributed throughout southern and north-central Ontario. Computationally, the red pine SSDMM and associated algorithmic analogue (1) produced mathematically compatible stem and end-product volume estimates, (2) accounted for density-dependent as well as density-independent mortality losses, response delay following thinning and genetic worth effects, (3) enabled end-users to specify merchantability standards (log and pole dimensions), product degrade factors and cost profiles, and (4) addressed climate change impacts on rotational yield outcomes by geo-referencing RCP-specific effects on stand dynamical processes via the deployment of a climate-driven biophysical site-based height-age model. In summary, the provision of the red pine SSDMM and its unique ability to account for locale-specific climate change effects on crop planning forecasts inclusive of utility pole production, should be of consequential utility as the complexities of silvicultural decision-making intensify during the Anthropocene.