Low-Flow Similarities between the Transboundary Lauter River and Rhine River at Maxau from 1956 to 2022 (France/Germany)

Abstract

Climate change is increasing air temperatures and altering the precipitation and hydrological regime on a global scale. Challenges arise when assessing the impacts of climate change on the local scale for water resource management purposes, especially for low-mountain headwater catchments that not only serve as important water towers for local communities but also have distinct hydrological characteristics. Until now, no low-flow or hydrological drought studies had been carried out on the Lauter River. This study is unique in that it compares the Lauter River, a transboundary Rhine tributary, with a nearby station on the Rhine River just below its confluence at the French–German border. The Lauter catchment is a mostly natural, forested catchment; however, its water course has been influenced by past and present cultural activities. Climate change disturbances cascade through the hydrologic regime down to the local scale. As we are expecting more low-flow events, the decrease in water availability could cause conflicts between different water user groups in the Lauter catchment. However, the choice among different methods for identifying low-flow periods may cause confusion for local water resource managers. Using flow-rate time series of the Lauter River between 1956 and 2022, we compare for the first time three low-flow identification methods: the variable-threshold method (VT), the fixed-threshold method (FT), and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI). Similar analyses are applied and compared to the adjacent Maxau station on the Rhine River for the same time period. This study aims at (1) interpreting the differences amongst the various low-flow identification methods and (2) revealing the differences in low-flow characteristics of the Lauter catchment compared to that of the Rhine River. It appears that FT reacts faster to direct climate or anthropogenic impacts, whereas VT is more sensitive to indirect factors such as decreasing subsurface flow, which is typical for small headwater catchments such as the Lauter where flow dynamics react faster to flow disturbances. Abnormally low flow during the early spring in tributaries such as the Lauter can help predict low-flow conditions in the Rhine River during the following half-year and especially the summer. The results could facilitate early warning of hydrological droughts and drought management for water users in the Lauter catchment and further downstream along some of the Rhine.