Enhancing Mission Planning of Large-Scale UAV Swarms with Ensemble Predictive Model

Abstract

Target assignment and trajectory planning are two crucial components of mission planning for unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarms. In large-scale missions, the significance of planning efficiency becomes more pronounced. However, existing planning algorithms based on evolutionary computation and swarm intelligence face formidable challenges in terms of both efficiency and effectiveness. Additionally, the extensive trajectory planning involved is a significant factor affecting efficiency. Therefore, this paper proposes a dedicated method for large-scale mission planning. Firstly, to avoid extensive trajectory planning operations, this paper suggests utilizing a machine learning algorithm to establish a predictive model of trajectory length. To ensure predictive accuracy, an ensemble algorithm based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) is proposed. Secondly, to ensure the efficiency and effectiveness of target assignments in large-scale missions, this paper draws inspiration from a greedy search and proposes a simple yet effective target assignment algorithm. This algorithm can effectively handle a large number of decision variables and constraints involved in large-scale missions. Finally, we validated the effectiveness of the proposed method through 15 simulated missions of different scales. Among the 10 medium- to large-scale missions, our method achieved the best results in 9 of them, demonstrating the competitive advantage of our method in large-scale missions. Comparative results demonstrate the advantage of the proposed methods from both prediction and mission planning perspectives.