Trends of Key Greenhouse Gases as Measured in 2009–2022 at the FTIR Station of St. Petersburg State University

Abstract

Key long-lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) are perhaps among the best-studied components of the Earth’s atmosphere today; however, attempts to predict or explain trends or even shorter-term variations of these trace gases are not always successful. Infrared spectroscopy is a recognized technique for the ground-based long-term monitoring of the gaseous composition of the atmosphere. The current paper is focused on the analysis of new data on CO2, CH4, and N2O total columns (TCs) retrieved from high resolution IR solar spectra acquired during 2009–2022 at the NDACC atmospheric monitoring station of St. Petersburg State University (STP station, 59.88°N, 29.83°E, 20 m asl.). The paper provides information on the FTIR system (Fourier-transform infrared) installed at the STP station, and an overview of techniques used for the CO2, CH4, and N2O retrievals. Trends of key greenhouse gases and their confidence levels were evaluated using an original approach which combines the Lomb–Scargle method with the cross-validation and bootstrapping techniques. As a result, the following fourteen-year (2009–2022) trends of TCs have been revealed: (0.56 ± 0.01) % yr−1 for CO2; (0.46 ± 0.02) % yr−1 for CH4; (0.28 ± 0.01) % yr−1 for N2O. A comparison with trends based on the EMAC numerical modeling data was carried out. The trends of greenhouse gases observed at the STP site are consistent with the results of the in situ monitoring performed at the same geographical location, and with the independent estimates of the global volume mixing ratio growth rates obtained by the GAW network and the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory. There is reasonable agreement between the CH4 and N2O TC trends for 2009–2019, which have been derived from FTIR measurements at three locations: the STP site, Izaña Observatory and the University of Toronto Atmospheric Observatory.