Time Phase Selection and Accuracy Analysis for Predicting Winter Wheat Yield Based on Time Series Vegetation Index

Abstract

Winter wheat is one of the major cereal crops globally and one of the top three cereal crops in China. The precise forecasting of the yield of winter wheat holds significant importance in the realms of agricultural management and ensuring food security. The use of multi-temporal remote sensing data for crop yield prediction has gained increasing attention. Previous research primarily focused on utilizing remote sensing data from individual or a few growth stages as input parameters or integrated data across the entire growth period. However, a detailed analysis of the impact of different temporal combinations on the accuracy of yield prediction has not been extensively reported. In this study, we optimized the temporal sequence of growth stages using interpolation methods, constructed a yield prediction model incorporating the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) at different growth stages as input parameters, and employed a random forest (RF) algorithm. The results indicated that the RF model utilizing the EVI from all the temporal combinations throughout the growth period as input parameters accurately predicted the winter wheat yield with an R2 of the calibrated dataset exceeding 0.58 and an RMSE less than 1284 kg/ha. Among the 1023 yield models tested in this study with ten different growth stage combinations, the most accurate temporal combination comprised five stages corresponding to the regreening, erecting, jointing, heading, and filling stages, with an R2 of 0.81 and an RMSE of 1250 kg/ha and an NRMSE of 15%. We also observed a significant decrease in estimation accuracy when the number of growth stages was fewer than five and a certain degree of decline when the number exceeded five. Our findings confirmed the optimal number and combination of growth stages for the best yield prediction, providing substantial insights for winter wheat yield forecasting.