Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdown on Traffic Flow, Active Travel and Gaseous Pollutant Concentrations; Implications for Future Emissions Control Measures in Oxford, UK

Abstract

The COVID-19 lockdown provided a unique opportunity to test the impacts of changes in travel patterns on air quality and the environment. Therefore, this study provides insights into the impacts of COVID-19 emergency public health “lockdown” measures upon traffic flow, active travel and gaseous pollutant concentrations (NO, NO2 and O3) in Oxford city centre during 2020 using time-series analysis and linear regression methods. Comparisons of traffic counts indicated pronounced changes in traffic volume associated with national lockdown periods. Car volume reduced by 77.5% (statistically significant) during the first national lockdown, with lesser changes in goods vehicles and public transport (bus) activity during the second lockdown. Cycle flow reduced substantively during the first lockdown only. These changes resulted in a reduction in nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations of 75.1% and 47.4%, respectively, at roadside, and 71.8% and 34.1% at urban background during the first lockdown period. In contrast ozone (O3) concentrations increased at the urban background site by 22.3% during the first lockdown period, with no significant changes in gaseous concentrations during the second lockdown at either roadside or urban background location. The diurnal pattern of peak mean NO and NO2 concentrations reduced in magnitude and was shifted approximately 2 h earlier in the morning and 2 h later in the evening (roadside) and 3 h earlier in the morning and 3 h later in the evening (urban background). Our findings provide an example of how gaseous air quality in urban environments could respond to future urban traffic restrictions, suggesting benefits from reductions in peak and daily NO2 exposures may be offset by health harms arising from increases in ground level O3 concentrations in the summer months.