Prediction of Suitable Habitat Distribution of Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis in the World and China under Climate Change
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Published:2023-07-11
Issue:7
Volume:9
Page:739
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ISSN:2309-608X
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Container-title:Journal of Fungi
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language:en
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Short-container-title:JoF
Author:
Yan Chengcai123, Hao Haiting123, Wang Zhe123, Sha Shuaishuai123, Zhang Yiwen123, Wang Qingpeng12, Kang Zhensheng145ORCID, Huang Lili145, Wang Lan123, Feng Hongzu123
Affiliation:
1. Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China 2. Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China 3. The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China 4. State Key Laboratory of Crop Stress Biology for Arid Areas, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China 5. Yangling Seed Industry Innovation Center, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
Abstract
Years of outbreaks of woody canker (Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis) in the United States, Iran, and China have resulted in massive economic losses to biological forests and fruit trees. However, only limited information is available on their distribution, and their habitat requirements have not been well evaluated due to a lack of research. In recent years, scientists have utilized the MaxEnt model to estimate the effect of global temperature and specific environmental conditions on species distribution. Using occurrence and high resolution ecological data, we predicted the spatiotemporal distribution of C. pullmanensis under twelve climate change scenarios by applying the MaxEnt model. We identified climatic factors, geography, soil, and land cover that shape their distribution range and determined shifts in their habitat range. Then, we measured the suitable habitat area, the ratio of change in the area of suitable habitat, the expansion and shrinkage of maps under climate change, the direction and distance of range changes from the present to the end of the twenty-first century, and the effect of environmental variables. C. pullmanensis is mostly widespread in high-suitability regions in northwestern China, the majority of Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkey, northern Chile, southwestern Argentina, and the west coast of California in the United States. Under future climatic conditions, climate changes of varied intensities favored the expansion of suitable habitats for C. pullmanensis in China. However, appropriate land areas are diminishing globally. The trend in migration is toward latitudes and elevations that are higher. The estimated area of possible suitability shifted eastward in China. The results of the present study are valuable not only for countries such as Morocco, Spain, Chile, Turkey, Kazakhstan, etc., where the infection has not yet fully spread or been established, but also for nations where the species has been discovered. Authorities should take steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to restrict the spread of C. pullmanensis. Countries with highly appropriate locations should increase their surveillance, risk assessment, and response capabilities.
Funder
Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China Bingtuan Science and Technology Program Project of Scientific Research and Innovation for postgraduates in Tarim University
Subject
Plant Science,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics,Microbiology (medical)
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