Identifying the Minimum Number of Flood Events for Reasonable Flood Peak Prediction of Ungauged Forested Catchments in South Korea

Abstract

The severity and incidence of flash floods are increasing in forested regions, causing significant harm to residents and the environment. Consequently, accurate estimation of flood peaks is crucial. As conventional physically based prediction models reflect the traits of only a small number of areas, applying them in ungauged catchments is challenging. The interrelationship between catchment characteristics and flood features to estimate flood peaks in ungauged areas remains underexplored, and evaluation standards for the appropriate number of flood events to include during data collection to ensure effective flood peak prediction have not been established. Therefore, we developed a machine-learning predictive model for flood peaks in ungauged areas and determined the minimum number of flood events required for effective prediction. We employed rainfall-runoff data and catchment characteristics for estimating flood peaks. The applicability of the machine learning model for ungauged areas was confirmed by the high predictive performance. Even with the addition of rainfall-runoff data from ungauged areas, the predictive performance did not significantly improve when sufficient flood data were used as input data. This criterion could facilitate the determination of the minimum number of flood events for developing adequate flood peak predictive models.