Rainfall Standard of Disaster Prediction for Agricultural Droughts in S. Korea

Abstract

With the climate change adding to the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, drought has devastated large areas of lands in South Korea. Still, the exact beginning and end of the drought is difficult to identify, and this impedes the development and implementation of disaster predictions. Although the drought phenomenon has been well-documented, predictions thereof are limited due to the non-linear and complex temporal fluctuations of the hydrologic factors. Hence, this study set up some reference points for disaster-prediction rainfall based on South Korea’s agricultural drought damage data, to help in drought relief. To set up the proposed reference points for disaster-prediction rainfall, we analyzed rainfall in light of the disaster-prevention relevance to agricultural droughts and the disaster reduction. As an analysis method, rainfall of municipality was calculated through Thiessen’s polygonal method, to apply rainfall weighting value for each rainfall observatory. In addition, the linear regression analysis was applied to suggest the calculation formula for setting the annual disaster reduction rainfall. The results of this study, standard of judgment point for disaster prevention of agricultural drought at the time of disaster management, were analyzed for rainfall for local governments and the whole country. Rather than using various drought indices that are currently developed, policy makers or public servant made suggestions based on rainfall that is most accessible and convenient for judging the timing of agricultural drought. As the disaster-prevention rainfall with agricultural droughts is expected to occur, we established the average annual rainfall of ≤1200 or 100 mm below the preceding year’s average annual rainfall. Moreover, as the disaster-reduction rainfall for agricultural droughts to end, we determined the average monthly rainfall of ≥150 mm.