Early Warning Evaluation and Warning Trend Analysis of the Resource and Environment Carrying Capacity in Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang

Abstract

Ecologically fragile areas in China account for more than half of its land area. Performing early warning assessments and trend analyses of resource and environment carrying capacity in ecologically fragile areas can lay a scientific foundation for ecological conservation in the areas. Based on the connotation of resource and environment carrying capacity, an early warning index system of resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture was constructed from the three aspects natural resource carrying capacity, eco-environment carrying capacity, and economic and social support capacity. The grey relational projection method model was used to analyze the current alarm situation of the resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture from 2011 to 2020, and then the back propagation (BP) neural network and a mathematical statistics software were used to predict the evolution of the alarm situation of the resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture from 2021 to 2025. The results demonstrated that (1) the natural resource carrying capacity subsystem was the main system of the development of the resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture, and its impact on the resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture was greater than the eco-environment carrying capacity and economic and social support capacity; (2) the resource and environmental carrying capacity of Altay prefecture showed a slight upward trend from 2011 to 2020, although the range was constrained and the level of warning remained “moderate warning”. A spatial pattern of “weak in the middle, strong in the two poles” was exhibited by the warning scenario about the carrying capacity of each county and city. Except for the warning of Habahe County and Qinghe County, where the warning was slightly worse than that in 2020, the warning of resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture and other counties and cities would show a trend of fluctuation and decline from 2021 to 2025. However, the degree of alarm did not change substantially and remained at the level of “moderate warning”; (3) the main factors restricting the mitigation of the warning of resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture included a low soil fertility index, a small total reservoir capacity, low per capita mineral resource reserves, a low water resource development and utilization rate, a low comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste, and a low land output rate.