Simplified Regional Prediction Model of Long-Term Trend for Critical Frequency of Ionospheric F2 Region over East Asia

Abstract

To improve the accuracy of predictions and simplify the difficulty with the algorithm, a simplified empirical model is proposed in developing a long-term predictive approach in determining the ionosphere’s F2-layer critical frequency (foF2). The main distinctive features introduced in this model are: (1) Its vertical incidence sounding data, which were obtained from 18 ionosonde stations in east Asia between 1949 and 2017, used in reconstructing the model and verification; (2) the use of second-order polynomial and triangle harmonic functions, instead of linear ones, to obtain the relationship between the seasonal vs. solar-cycle variations of foF2 and solar activity parameters; (3) the flux of solar radio waves at 10.7 cm and sunspot number are together introduced in reconstructing the temporal characteristics of foF2; and (4) the use of the geomagnetic dip coordinates rather than geographic coordinates in reconstructing the spatial characteristics of foF2. The statistical results reveal that foF2 values calculated from the proposed model agree well with the trend in the monthly median statistical characteristics obtained from measurements. The results are better than those obtained from the International Reference Ionosphere model using both the CCIR and URSI coefficients. Furthermore, the proposed model has enabled some useful guidelines to be established for a more complete and accurate Asia regional or global model in the future.