Reduction of the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma over Time Using Direct-Acting Antivirals: A Propensity Score Analysis of a Real-Life Cohort (PITER HCV)

Abstract

The treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) with direct-acting antivirals (DAA) leads to high sustained virological response (SVR) rates, but hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk persists in people with advanced liver disease even after SVR. We weighted the HCC risk in people with cirrhosis achieving HCV eradication through DAA treatment and compared it with untreated participants in the multicenter prospective Italian Platform for the Study of Viral Hepatitis Therapies (PITER) cohort. Propensity matching with inverse probability weighting was used to compare DAA-treated and untreated HCV-infected participants with liver cirrhosis. Kaplan–Meier analysis and competing risk regression analysis were performed. Within the first 36 months, 30 de novo HCC cases occurred in the untreated group (n = 307), with a weighted incidence rate of 0.34% (95%CI: 0.23–0.52%), compared to 63 cases among SVR patients (n = 1111), with an incidence rate of 0.20% (95%CI: 0.16–0.26%). The 12-, 24-, and 36-month HCC weighted cumulative incidence rates were 6.7%, 8.4%, and 10.0% in untreated cases and 2.3%, 4.5%, and 7.0% in the SVR group. Considering death or liver transplantation as competing events, the untreated group showed a 64% higher risk of HCC incidence compared to SVR patients (SubHR 1.64, 95%CI: 1.02–2.62). Other variables independently associated with the HCC occurrence were male sex, increasing age, current alcohol use, HCV genotype 3, platelet count ≤ 120,000/µL, and albumin ≤ 3.5 g/dL. In real-life practice, the high efficacy of DAA in achieving SVR is translated into high effectiveness in reducing the HCC incidence risk.