Quantitative Analysis of Desertification-Driving Mechanisms in the Shiyang River Basin: Examining Interactive Effects of Key Factors through the Geographic Detector Model

Abstract

Desertification is a global eco-environmental hazard exacerbated by environmental and anthropogenic factors. However, comprehensive quantification of each driving factor’s relative impact poses significant challenges and remains poorly understood. The present research applied a GIS-based and geographic detector model to quantitatively analyze interactive effects between environmental and anthropogenic factors on desertification in the Shiyang River Basin. A MODIS-based aridity index was used as a dependent variable, while elevation, near-surface air temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, land cover change, soil salinity, road buffers, waterway buffers, and soil types were independent variables for the GeoDetector model. A trend analysis revealed increased aridity in the central parts of the middle reach and most parts of the Minqin oasis and a significant decrease in some regions where ecological rehabilitation projects are underway. The GeoDetector model yielded a power determinant (q) ranging from 0.004 to 0.270, revealing elevation and soil types as the region’s highest contributing factors to desertification. Precipitation, soil salinity, waterway buffer, and wind velocity contributed moderately, while near-surface air temperature, road buffer, and land cover dynamics exhibited a lower impact. In addition, the interaction between driving factors often resulted in mutual or non-linear enhancements, thus aggravating desertification impacts. The prominent linear and mutual enhancement occurred between elevation and soil salinity and between elevation and precipitation. On the other hand, the results exhibited a non-linear enhancement among diverse variables, namely, near-surface air temperature and elevation, soil types and precipitation, and land cover dynamics and soil types, as well as between wind velocity and land cover dynamics. These findings suggest that environmental factors are the primary drivers of desertification and highlight the region’s need for sustainable policy interventions.