How Human Mobility Models Can Help to Deal with COVID-19

Abstract

One of the key factors for the spreading of human infections, such as the COVID-19, is human mobility. There is a huge background of human mobility models developed with the aim of evaluating the performance of mobile computer networks, such as cellular networks, opportunistic networks, etc. In this paper, we propose the use of these models for evaluating the temporal and spatial risk of transmission of the COVID-19 disease. First, we study both pure synthetic model and simulated models based on pedestrian simulators, generated for real urban scenarios such as a square and a subway station. In order to evaluate the risk, two different risks of exposure are defined. The results show that we can obtain not only the temporal risk but also a heat map with the exposure risk in the evaluated scenario. This is particularly interesting for public spaces, where health authorities could make effective risk management plans to reduce the risk of transmission.