Multi-Indicator Fused Resilience Assessment of Power Grids Considering Wind-Photovoltaic Output Uncertainty during Typhoon Disasters

Abstract

Extreme weather events such as typhoons pose a serious threat to the safe operation of power grids. In the field of power system resilience assessment during typhoon disasters, a parametric typhoon wind field model combined with actual historical meteorological data has not been well adopted, and the conventional renewable energy uncertainty modeling methods are not suitable for typhoon disaster periods. In this paper, a multi-indicator fused resilience assessment strategy considering wind-photovoltaic uncertainty and component failure during typhoon disasters is proposed. Firstly, based on the actual historical meteorological data of typhoons, an uncertainty model of typhoon wind speed is established by a rolling non-parametric Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture model. Then, a spatial–temporal contingency set is constructed by considering the best-fit wind field model and stress–strength interference model for failure probability of transmission lines. On this basis, a holistic resilience assessment framework is established from the perspectives of priority, robustness, rapidity, and sustainability, and the entropy weight method combined with the technology for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution is leveraged to obtain the comprehensive resilience indicator. Finally, numerical studies are performed on the IEEE-30 bus test system to identify vulnerable lines and improve system resilience during typhoon disasters.