The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Web and Video Conferencing SaaS Market

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic related government interventions produced rapid decreases in worldwide economic and social activity, with multifaceted economic and social consequences. In particular, the disruption of key industries and significant lifestyle changes in the aftermath of the pandemic outbreak led to the exponential adoption of web and video conferencing Software as a Service (SaaS) programs and to the solutions-led video conferencing market growth. However, the magnitude and persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the video conferencing solutions segment remain uninvestigated. Building on previous evidence linking population web-search behavior, private consumption, and retail sales, this study sources and employs Google Trends data as an analytical and forecasting tool for the solutions segment of the videoconferencing market. It implements a univariate forecast evaluation approach that assesses the predictive performance of several statistical and machine-learning models for the relative search volume (RSV) in the two SaaS program leaders, Zoom and Teams. ETS is found to provide the best forecast of consumer GT search interest for both RSV series. A baseline level for the consumer interest over the first pandemic wave is subsequently produced with ETS and further serves to estimate the excess search interest over the February 2020–August 2020 period. Results indicate that the pandemic has created an excess or abnormal consumer interest in the global web and videoconferencing SaaS market that would not have occurred in the absence of the pandemic. Other findings indicate that the impact is persistent as the excess interest stabilized at higher levels than in the pre-pandemic period for both SaaS market leaders, although a higher saturation of the Zoom market is detected.