Development of an Algorithm for Calculating the Moisture Content and Time of Forest Fire Maturation of Forest Combustible Materials for Determining Forest Fire Hazards

Abstract

Nowadays, forests play an important role in stabilizing the ecological balance, being one of the most important components of the biosphere. Due to the vital activity of forests, the gas composition of the atmosphere is normalized. Mass forest fires have the opposite effect. They cause irreparable damage to flora and fauna, contribute to the melting of Arctic ice, an increase in the Earth’s temperature, and destabilization of the carbon balance. The purpose of this study is to develop an algorithm for calculating the moisture content and time of forest fire maturation of forest combustible materials. To achieve this goal, the main factors determining a forest fire hazard have been studied, as well as a review of existing methods for assessing forest fire danger and scientific papers on forest pyrology. As a result of the analysis of the research aimed at studying the rate of drying of forest combustible materials (FCM), depending on the physical properties and environmental parameters, a dependency of changes in moisture content over time was obtained. With its help, knowing the initial moisture content of FCM, it is possible to calculate the periods of fire maturation for each component of the forest plantation. Cooperative use of the resulting algorithm with a digital twin of a forest stand makes it possible to identify the most fire-hazard forest areas and estimate the period of their fire-prone maturation.