Software Requirement Risk Prediction Using Enhanced Fuzzy Induction Models

Abstract

The development of most modern software systems is accompanied by a significant level of uncertainty, which can be attributed to the unanticipated activities that may occur throughout the software development process. As these modern software systems become more complex and drawn out, escalating software project failure rates have become a critical concern. These unforeseeable uncertainties are known as software risks, and they emerge from many risk factors inherent to the numerous activities comprising the software development lifecycle (SDLC). Consequently, these software risks have resulted in massive revenue losses for software organizations. Hence, it is imperative to address these software risks, to curb future software system failures. The subjective risk assessment (SRM) method is regarded as a viable solution to software risk problems. However, it is inherently reliant on humans and, therefore, in certain situations, imprecise, due to its dependence on an expert’s knowledge and experience. In addition, the SRM does not allow repeatability, as expertise is not easily exchanged across the different units working on a software project. Developing intelligent modelling methods that may offer more unbiased, reproducible, and explainable decision-making assistance in risk management is crucial. Hence, this research proposes enhanced fuzzy induction models for software requirement risk prediction. Specifically, the fuzzy unordered rule induction algorithm (FURIA), and its enhanced variants based on nested subset selection dichotomies, are developed for software requirement risk prediction. The suggested fuzzy induction models are based on the use of effective rule-stretching methods for the prediction process. Additionally, the proposed FURIA method is enhanced through the introduction of nested subset selection dichotomy concepts into its prediction process. The prediction performances of the proposed models are evaluated using a benchmark dataset, and are then compared with existing machine learning (ML)-based and rule-based software risk prediction models. From the experimental results, it was observed that the FURIA performed comparably, in most cases, to the rule-based and ML-based models. However, the FURIA nested dichotomy variants were superior in performance to the conventional FURIA method, and rule-based and ML-based methods, with the least accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), and Mathew’s correlation coefficient (MCC), with values of approximately 98%.