Predicting Car Availability in Free Floating Car Sharing Systems: Leveraging Machine Learning in Challenging Contexts

Abstract

Free-Floating Car Sharing (FFCS) services are currently available in tens of cities and countries spread all over the worlds. Depending on citizens’ habits, service policies, and road conditions, car usage profiles are rather variable and often hardly predictable. Even within the same city, different usage trends emerge in different districts and in various time slots and weekdays. Therefore, modeling car availability in FFCS systems is particularly challenging. For these reasons, the research community has started to investigate the applicability of Machine Learning models to analyze FFCS usage data. This paper addresses the problem of predicting the short-term level of availability of the FFCS service in the short term. Specifically, it investigates the applicability of Machine Learning models to forecast the number of available car within a restricted urban area. It seeks the spatial and temporal contexts in which nonlinear ML models, trained on past usage data, are necessary to accurately predict car availability. Leveraging ML has shown to be particularly effective while considering highly dynamic urban contexts, where FFCS service usage is likely to suddenly and unexpectedly change. To tailor predictive models to the real FFCS data, we study also the influence of ML algorithm, prediction horizon, and characteristics of the neighborhood of the target area. The empirical outcomes allow us to provide system managers with practical guidelines to setup and tune ML models.