A Non-Linear Autoregressive Model for Indoor Air-Temperature Predictions in Smart Buildings

Abstract

In recent years, the contrast against energy waste and pollution has become mandatory and widely endorsed. Among the many actors at stake, the building sector energy management is one of the most critical. Indeed, buildings are responsible for 40 % of total energy consumption only in Europe, affecting more than a third of the total pollution produced. Therefore, energy control policies of buildings (for example, forecast-based policies such as Demand Response and Demand Side Management) play a decisive role in reducing energy waste. On these premises, this paper presents an innovative methodology based on Internet-of-Things (IoT) technology for smart building indoor air-temperature forecasting. In detail, our methodology exploits a specialized Non-linear Autoregressive neural network for short- and medium-term predictions, envisioning two different exploitation: (i) on realistic artificial data and (ii) on real data collected by IoT devices deployed in the building. For this purpose, we designed and optimized four neural models, focusing respectively on three characterizing rooms and on the whole building. Experimental results on both a simulated and a real sensors dataset demonstrate the prediction accuracy and robustness of our proposed models.