Intelligent Prediction of Private Information Diffusion in Social Networks

Abstract

In the information age, leaked private information may cause significant physical and mental harm to the relevant parties, leading to a negative social impact. In order to effectively evaluate the impact of such information leakage in today’s social networks, it is necessary to accurately predict the scope and depth of private information diffusion. By doing so, it would be feasible to prevent and control the improper spread and diffusion of private information. In this paper, we propose an intelligent prediction method for private information diffusion in social networks based on comprehensive data analysis. We choose Sina Weibo, one of the most prominent social networks in China, to study. Firstly, a prediction model of message forwarding behavior is established by analyzing the characteristic factors that influence the forwarding behavior of the micro-blog users. Then the influence of users is calculated based on the interaction time and topological structure of users relationship, and the diffusion critical paths are identified. Finally, through the user forwarding probability transmission, we determine the micro-blog diffusion cut-off conditions. The simulation results on Sina Weibo data set show that the prediction accuracy is 86.9%, which indicates that our method is efficient to predict the message diffusion in real-world social networks.