An Air Pollutant Forecast Correction Model Based on Ensemble Learning Algorithm

Abstract

In recent years, air pollutants have become an important issue in meteorological research and an indispensable part of air quality forecasting. To improve the accuracy of the Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment (CUACE) model’s air pollutant forecasts, this paper proposes a solution based on ensemble learning. Firstly, the forecast results of the CUACE model and the corresponding monitoring data are extracted. Then, using feature analysis, we screen the correction factors that affect air quality. The random forest algorithm, XGBoost algorithm, and GBDT algorithm are employed to correct the prediction results of PM2.5, PM10, and O3. To further optimize the model, we introduce the grid search method. Finally, we compare and analyze the correction effect and determine the best correction model for the three air pollutants. This approach enhances the precision of the CUACE model’s forecast and improves our understanding of the factors that affect air quality. The experimental results show that the model has a better prediction error correction effect than the traditional machine learning statistical model. After the algorithm correction, the prediction accuracy of PM2.5 and PM10 is increased by 60%, and the prediction accuracy of O3 is increased by 70%.