The Impact of the Weather Forecast Model on Improving AI-Based Power Generation Predictions through BiLSTM Networks

Abstract

This study aims to comprehensively analyze five weather forecasting models obtained from the Open-Meteo historical data repository, with a specific emphasis on evaluating their impact in predicting wind power generation. Given the increasing focus on renewable energy, namely, wind power, accurate weather forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing energy generation and ensuring the stability of the power system. The analysis conducted in this study incorporates a range of models, namely, ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON), the Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM Global), Meteo France, the Global Forecast System (GSF Global), and the Best Match technique. The Best Match approach is a distinctive solution available from the weather forecast provider that combines the data from all available models to generate the most precise forecast for a particular area. The performance of these models was evaluated using various important metrics, including the mean squared error, the root mean squared error, the mean absolute error, the mean absolute percentage error, the coefficient of determination, and the normalized mean absolute error. The weather forecast model output was used as an essential input for the power generation prediction models during the evaluation process. This method was confirmed by comparing the predictions of these models with actual data on wind power generation. The ICON model, for example, outscored others with a root mean squared error of 1.7565, which is a tiny but essential improvement over Best Match, which had a root mean squared error of 1.7604. GEM Global and Gsf Global showed more dramatic changes, with root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of 2.0086 and 2.0242, respectively, indicating a loss in prediction accuracy of around 24% to 31% compared to ICON. Our findings reveal significant disparities in the precision of the various models used, and certain models exhibited significantly higher predictive precision.