Research on a Resource Modeling and Power Prediction Method Based on Virtual Aggregation

Abstract

Distributed resources at a grid’s end cannot upload operational power data to local centers due to data transmission and privacy issues. This leaves the centers with incomplete information, thus impacting decision making. This paper presents a virtual aggregation-based model for such scenarios. We define four virtual aggregate types based on resource response characteristics. Using characteristic coefficients, we identify these aggregates’ categories and proportions from bus power. To address blind source separation in single-channel power signals, we apply the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition-Fast Independent Component Analysis (EEMD-FastICA) method. This helps extract and analyze bus power, thereby deriving power curves for different aggregates. Moreover, we use a graph convolutional network to explore how factors like date, time, weather, and pricing intertwine with aggregate power. We develop a predictive model with an advanced SpatioTemporal Graph Convolutional Network (STGCN), thus facilitating proactive power forecasting for virtual aggregates. Case studies show our method’s efficacy in extracting power curves under limited information, with the STGCN ensuring accurate, forward-looking predictions.