Disturbance Frequency Trajectory Prediction in Power Systems Based on LightGBM Spearman

Abstract

Addressing the issue of reduced system inertia and significantly increased risk of system frequency deviation due to high penetration of renewable energy sources, this paper proposes a power system disturbance frequency trajectory prediction method based on light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) Spearman to provide data support for advanced system stability judgment and the initiation of stability control measures. Firstly, the optimal cluster is determined by combining the K-means clustering algorithm with the elbow method to eliminate redundant electrical quantities. Subsequently, the Spearman coefficient is used to analyze feature correlation and filter out electrical quantities that are strongly correlated with frequency stability. Finally, a frequency trajectory prediction model is built based on LightGBM to achieve accurate prediction of disturbed frequency trajectories. The method is validated using a case study on the New England 10-machine 39-bus system constructed on the CloudPSS 4.0 full electromagnetic cloud simulation platform, and the results show that the proposed method has high accuracy in frequency trajectory prediction.