Trends and Perspectives of Romanian E-Commerce Sector Based on Mathematical Simulation

Abstract

The current economic environment characterized by the implementation of new ICT technologies, globalization, and the pandemic period has determined the growth of online communication, the development of the e-commerce sector, and the change in online consumer behavior. The research aims to analyze online Romanian consumer behavior trends and perspectives. In order to observe the current position of Romanian online commerce, a comparison was made between the Romanian e-commerce market and three other e-commerce groups: the average for EU-27 countries, the group of four countries with the highest e-commerce values (called 4gc—Denmark, the Netherlands, Germany, and Norway) and the country with the lowest values in e-commerce. A comparison was made using mathematical simulation to predict the potential of e-commerce in the future and identify possible risks. Based on the simulation, the results show that the Romanian e-commerce market can continue to grow, becoming mature, and will provide opportunities for sustainable growth. In order to observe and analyze a possible future for 2021–2026, the regression function, correlation matrix, time series analysis, variable maximization, and QM for the Windows program have been implemented. The graphical representation indicates a positive and growing forecasted future trend for Romanian e-commerce.