Research on Runoff Prediction Based on Time2Vec-TCN-Transformer Driven by Multi-Source Data

Abstract

Due to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather in recent years, accurate runoff prediction is crucial for the rational planning and management of water resources. Addressing the high uncertainty and multiple influencing factors in runoff prediction, this paper proposes a runoff prediction method driven by multi-source data. Based on multivariate observed data of runoff, water level, temperature, and precipitation, a Time2Vec-TCN-Transformer model is proposed for runoff prediction research and compared with LSTM, TCN, and TCN-Transformer models. The results show that the Time2Vec-TCN-Transformer model outperforms other models in metrics including MAE, RRMSE, MAPE, and NSE, demonstrating higher prediction accuracy and reliability. By effectively combining Time2Vec, TCN, and Transformer, the proposed model improves the MAPE for forecasting 1–4 days in the future by approximately 7% compared to the traditional LSTM model and 4% compared to the standalone TCN model, while maintaining NSE consistently between 0.9 and 1. This model can better capture the periodicity, long-term scale information, and relationships among multiple variables of runoff data, providing reliable predictive support for flood forecasting and water resources management.