OneMap Drought Monitoring Analysis Based on Statistical Models

Abstract

As the effects of droughts on agriculture and industrial water availability intensify with climate change, developing suitable drought prevention and mitigation measures has become increasingly important. However, measuring drought conditions using different indices leads to disjointed drought management responses by ministries and agencies. Additionally, indices based on only one variable are insufficient to accurately assess drought conditions. Therefore, creating and adopting a OneMap drought index would be beneficial in the assessment of drought conditions and the implementation of appropriate measures. In this study, we used multivariate statistical modeling using Bayesian principal component analysis to develop a OneMap drought index that unifies existing measures of drought conditions, including meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought indices. After evaluating the accuracy of the corrected OneMap drought index based on the self-organizing migrating algorithm optimization technique, it was found that the applicability of the OneMap drought index and its ability to regenerate drought were excellent for ground and satellite data. Therefore, the authors recommend implementing step-by-step drought management action plans using the integrated index to generate drought forecasts and warnings, thus promoting concerted and effective responses of local governments and authorities.