Extreme Recreational Conditions in the Black Sea Resorts Associated with the North Atlantic Climate

Abstract

The tourist and recreational conditions of the Mediterranean-Black Sea resorts are closely related to hydrometeorological anomalies, which in turn are largely associated with the North Atlantic climate. The aim of this paper was to study the change and variability of the bioclimatic indices and their extremes at the Black Sea resorts (on the example of Yalta, Southern coast of Crimea, and Sochi, Caucasian coast) associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Oscillation (EAO). Using daily NCEP/NCAR (2.5° × 2.5°) and E-OBS (0.25° × 0.25°) reanalysis datasets, bioclimatic indices (wind cooling index, weight oxygen content, and equivalent-effective temperature) were calculated for January and July in 1950–2013/2018. The extreme index values were obtained using the 5th and 95th percentile relative thresholds. The results suggest that bioclimatic indices in Yalta are more sensitive to the global warming effect than those in Sochi, likely due to the geographical features. As a result, Yalta is becoming a year-round resort. It was shown for both resorts that negative EAO phase is significantly manifested in the increase of windy days in July versus the increase of windless days in the positive phase, and in the more frequent fresh and cold days in July (versus the opposite conditions in the positive phase only in Yalta). The NAO manifestations are mostly less pronounced than those of the EAO and are more significant in Sochi (mostly in January and in the negative NAO phase). Thus, it was shown that extreme values of bioclimatic indices occur at both resorts on the interannual scale depending on the NAO and EAO phases, but the conditions remain in the comfort range for now, even with the significant linear trends. The study can be expanded to other Mediterranean–Black Sea resorts for their sustainable development in a changing climate.