Sea Coast of the Western Part of the Russian Arctic under Climate Change: Dynamics, Technogenic Influence and Potential Economic Damage

Abstract

The Arctic coast dynamics has been an urgent problem over the last years, from both a practical and a fundamental point of view. In this research, for the first time for the Russian Arctic coast, we assessed the damage from the loss of territories in the western part of the Russian Arctic, where the active production and transportation of hydrocarbon material are carried out. Most of the studied coastline is composed of frozen unlithified soils with inclusions of underground ice. In this regard, the coastal zone is highly sensitive to climate change and its economic consequences. According to our investigation and literature data, the erosion rates could rich up to 2–3 m/year in some part of the coastline. Having estimated the cadastral cost of land and the area of the possible loss of territory, as well as the cost of transport infrastructure in the risk zone, we tried to predict the damage from changes in the total structure of the area under consideration. In particular, the economic damages from coastal permafrost processes were estimated. The assessment was conducted for the middle of the 21st century, taking into account the current climatic trend, erosion rate and probable maximum warming in this region.