Range Shifts in the Worldwide Expansion of Oenothera drummondii subsp. drummondii, a Plant Species of Coastal Dunes

Abstract

Oenothera drummondii is a coastal dunes plant species from the North American continent that has affected the natural structure and dynamics of Spanish, Israeli, and Chinese shores as an invasive species. In South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and France, it is reported as a naturalized species. Ecological niche and species distribution modeling has been widely used as a tool to find potential global invasions and assess invasion effects. Herein, we modeled the ecological niche and the potential distribution of Oenothera drummondii, using the Köppen–Geiger climate classification, bioclimatic variables and occurrence records that have been validated in their native and non-native distribution. In the native area, the temperature and precipitation values are higher compared to non-native zones, where the low temperatures and the absence of humidity are the main climatic limitations for the species. In the environmental space, new distribution areas were identified and a partial overlap between the native and non-native niches detected. This suggests that climate matching is not occurring for the species, and that the potential invasion of coastal dune areas seems to be higher than previously observed. Therefore, new potential invasion areas, where the species is not yet distributed, were also identified. Our predictions could be used to establish ecosystem management measures to mitigate the invasion of Oenothera drummondii, helping to prevent possible negative impacts on fragile coastal ecosystems.