Assessing the Additional Benefits of Thailand’s Approaches to Reduce Motor Vehicle Emissions

Abstract

Air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) represent major challenges in our era, contributing to climate change and global health issues. These problems arise from a variety of well-known sources, including motor vehicles. Almost all nations, Thailand included, have formulated and implemented policies to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in line with the requirements and commitments of the Paris Agreement. The evaluation of specific air pollutants and GHG emissions originating from road vehicles utilises the Thailand database, referencing the year 2019. Data intersections from 2019 to 2022 are grounded in actual data collected from relevant departments in Thailand, while projections for 2023–2030 are forecasted based on the baseline year. The secondary database used in the International Vehicle Emission model is adjusted according to real-world driving data to accurately reflect country-specific emission factors. Dynamic emission factors for specific air pollutants and GHGs are evaluated and integrated with the average Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) for each vehicle category. The Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario is then examined, based on existing policies aimed at reducing air pollutants and GHG emissions in Thailand’s transport sector. These policies include strategies for the adoption of electric vehicles and the promotion of public transport to reduce VKT. Under the BAU scenario, the overall number of road vehicles in Thailand, including passenger cars, motorcycles, pickups, vans, trucks, and buses, is expected to increase by approximately 6.58% by 2030, leading to a rise in specific air pollutants and GHG emissions compared to the 2019 baseline. However, by adhering to Thailand’s strategies and transitioning to new electric passenger cars and buses, greenhouse gas emissions and specific air pollutants from the road transport sector will be significantly reduced.